posted by MDMcDonald_me_com
on Thu, 2020-05-14 08:14
Dear colleagues,
For those of you that do not know, Marc Pierson is a retired Emergency Room doc and retired health system executive, who knows his way through a pandemic. He is a systems scientist doing really interesting work with resilience and regeneration within Washington State. He is in particular doing really interesting work on the initiation and management of local digital currencies that may be valuable for the East End food Institute and the broader East End Resilience Network to look at, especially if the global, national, and state economies continue to implode during the pandemic.
Take a look at a glimpse into Marc’s systems science research in the way he has depicted the East End Food Institute within the Brain.
Mike
Michael D. McDonald, Dr.P.H.
Coordinator
Global Health Response and Resilience Initiative
Alliance for Global Resilience and Regeneration
Executive Director
Health Initiatives Foundation, Inc.
Chairman
Oviar Global Resilience Systems, Inc.
Cell: 202-468-7899
- Show quoted text -
On May 14, 2020, at 8:00 AM, michael mcdonald <michael.d.mcdonald@me.com> wrote:
Marc,
Yes. The East End Food Institute and their leadership are definitely local resilience and regeneration treasures in the Peconic Bioregion in terms of health, human security, . Good to see you picking up on this from across the US in another promising AGRR (Alliance for Global Resilience and Regeneration) 400 site. The East End Food Institute is one of the potentially replicable and scalable models for other AGRR 400 communities and bioregions that we are identifying and assessing this year.
You should also be aware of what Archbishop Gordon is doing for food security in Trinidad and Tobago, as well as in the broader Caribbean bioregion. You may want to look at what Nichie Abo, Chouboutouiba (Dominica’s Minister of the Environment) are doing with the Kalinago Institute for Global Resilience and Regeneration (KIGRR) for the Kalinago nation (first people of the Caribbean). You may also want to look at Capital Institute’s work on regenerative finance and microgreens production. Stuart Cowan’s work with the Regenerative Communities Network is quite important. Eduard Mullers work with SICA regarding regenerative agriculture in Costa Rica and the broader Central American bioregions. Freya Yost is doing amazing work with the Common Earth program associated with Commonwealth of Nations from the Umbria, Italy.
The Blue Green political economy is starting to gain traction now within the Resilient American Communities and in many places around the world. This is just one of the odd paradoxes of this pandemic period.
Mike
Michael D. McDonald, Dr.P.H.
Coordinator
Global Health Response and Resilience Initiative
Alliance for Global Resilience and Regeneration
Executive Director
Health Initiatives Foundation, Inc.
Chairman
Oviar Global Resilience Systems, Inc.
Cell: 202-468-7899
On May 14, 2020, at 12:28 AM, Marc Pierson <marpie1@gmail.com> wrote:Mike,I look forward to that.On another note, the East End Food Institute is a wonderful model of systemic community building and problem solving. Amazing really.To better understand their work I put this together. https://bra.in/9p6ZQPCyclos4 Community edition has some of their local marketing build in. Not sure if they need a local currency to augment their great work or not.At the very least their work is inspiring for me, and I do need inspiring.Marc
On May 13, 2020, at 9:21 PM, michael mcdonald <michael.d.mcdonald@me.com> wrote:Marc,Looking forward to it. I am excited to hear more about your progress with local digital currencies. That will require another meeting.MikeMichael D. McDonald, Dr.P.H.CoordinatorGlobal Health Response and Resilience InitiativeAlliance for Global Resilience and RegenerationExecutive DirectorHealth Initiatives Foundation, Inc.ChairmanOviar Global Resilience Systems, Inc.Cell: 202-468-7899
On May 14, 2020, at 12:17 AM, Marc Pierson <marpie1@gmail.com> wrote:Mike,Thanks for the note.I just reviewed it. Sobering.See you on line tomorrow.Marc
On May 13, 2020, at 9:13 PM, michael mcdonald <michael.d.mcdonald@me.com> wrote:Marc,Good to hear from you.I would suggest that you look at the following Covid Act Now website from today.As you know, we are at the cusp of reopening our economy and society at the national, state, and local levels. The schematic below from the Covid Act now model shows clearly the difference in the need for hospitalizations due to severe COVID-19 illness if we carelessly open our economy and society versus maintain careful self sequestering.<PastedGraphic-29.png>We will be reconvening to discuss how our mitigation and management of our pandemic conditions are going so far at 4 PM on Thursday, May 14. Please use the following Zoom access information to join us:Mike McDonald is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.Topic: COVID-19 Resilient East End Zoom MeetingTime: May 14, 2020 04:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada)Join Zoom MeetingMeeting ID: 843 4140 4948Password: 067156One tap mobile+19292056099,,84341404948#,,1#,067156# US (New York)+13017158592,,84341404948#,,1#,067156# US (Germantown)Dial by your location+1 929 205 6099 US (New York)+1 301 715 8592 US (Germantown)+1 312 626 6799 US (Chicago)+1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose)+1 253 215 8782 US (Tacoma)+1 346 248 7799 US (Houston)Meeting ID: 843 4140 4948Password: 067156Find your local number: https://us02web.zoom.us/u/kJUuNWqN8I have made comments in brackets [ ] to note where I believe further explanation is needed. These comments are solely mine and may or may not represent anyone else’s opinions on this thread. This Covid Act Now model just uses secondary data from national data gathering techniques down to the county level. It is just one of many varying models. It does not represent the situation in East Hampton and its hamlets as accurately as we can do within the East End Resilience Network and its additional crowd-sourcing from the COVID-19 Resilient East End Initiative with adequate capacities and resources.It does, however, depict the general concepts of what we know will happen from the experiences around the US and in other countries regarding the rapid spread within a second wave, if populations continue to self sequester at home versus restart our economy, as well as move around and co-mingle with no constraint. In other countries in which we have Resilience Systems, we are seeing very clearly what is depicted in this model. Japan, which has selectively restarted its economy, is now experiencing a second wave of COVID-19 infections and deaths. Dominica, Trinidad and Tobago, and Costa Rica, which closed down their economy and borders early are all essentially without new cases at this point in time.What is lost entirely in this model is the details of what will happen in East Hampton when the weather warms and people swarm into East Hampton, its beaches, businesses, and parks with improper social distancing from places that still have high infection rates, seeking freedom from months of restrictions. Where our residents, who are somewhat careful interface with those that are infected, potentially through third parties in super-transmission sites, such as with service workers in restaurants, pharmacies, or grocery store that serve large numbers of people with inadequate social distancing, infection rates, hospitalizations and deaths will go up. On the other hand, if we do not open up our economy, unemployment, negative social and economic cascades, food insecurity, breaks in supply chains, and social unrest will likely increase.If possible, we should try to find a balance with far better collective intelligence established within East Hampton’s call circles, trust network, and Resilience Capacity Zones at the hamlet, village, and town levels. We can, in fact, enable our elders and others that know that they are at higher risk due to co-morbidities to sequester successfully, while opening up our Town’s economy carefully with clear enforceable rules. We can, in many of our neighborhoods within our less trafficked hamlets, maintain appropriate social distancing. We can train and support our super-transmitters (e.g., service workers) in remaining free of infection without passing on COVID-19 to others at least at a much reduced rate. We can require masks in public, which is of marginal value. We can discourage social gatherings and the opening of businesses such as theaters, where workers and patrons cannot maintain social distance.Suffolk County, New YorkElevated risk based on reopening metrics.County data is currently in beta. Because counties don’t report hospitalizations, our forecasts may not be as accurate. See something wrong? Please let us know.
Infection growth rate [in neighborhoods with social distancing and low interactions with outsiders]Active cases are decreasing 0.91
Positive test rateIndicates testing is limited14.5%
HighICU headroom usedUnable to handle a new wave of COVID 100%
HighInfection growth rateSuffolk County, New York
On average, each person in Suffolk County, New York with COVID is infecting 0.91 other people. Because each person is infecting less than one other person, the total number of cases in Suffolk County, New York is shrinking.[This does not represent accurately situations in high risk areas such as crowded beaches, parks and commercial areas.]
Begin forwarded message:From: Marc Pierson <marpie1@gmail.com>Subject: Re: COVID-19 Resilient East End Zoom Meeting at 4:00 PM on Thursday, April 30: Hitting Another Turning Point in the PandemicDate: May 13, 2020 at 2:48:24 PM EDTTo: michael mcdonald <michael.d.mcdonald@me.com>
Mike,Is there an upcoming call? If so which day and time in May?Marc360 50=94-2316
Sent from my iPad
On Apr 30, 2020, at 12:51 PM, michael mcdonald <michael.d.mcdonald@me.com> wrote:
Dear colleagues,We are entering a particularly sensitive time in our ability to manage the COVID-19 pandemic on the East End. Please join us if you can to discuss some of the key issues regarding opening up again key functions of our society, while protecting our health and human security on the East End. Please join us now using the following access information:Topic: COVID-19 Resilient East End Zoom CallTime: Apr 30, 2020 04:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada)Join Zoom MeetingMeeting ID: 857 5019 1970Password: 094337One tap mobile+19292056099,,85750191970#,,1#,094337# US (New York)+13017158592,,85750191970#,,1#,094337# US (Germantown)Dial by your location+1 929 205 6099 US (New York)+1 301 715 8592 US (Germantown)+1 312 626 6799 US (Chicago)+1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose)+1 253 215 8782 US (Tacoma)+1 346 248 7799 US (Houston)Meeting ID: 857 5019 1970Password: 094337Find your local number: https://us02web.zoom.us/u/kclSh2u9m6MikeMichael D. McDonald, Dr.P.H.CoordinatorGlobal Health Response and Resilience InitiativeAlliance for Global Resilience and RegenerationExecutive DirectorHealth Initiatives Foundation, Inc.ChairmanOviar Global Resilience Systems, Inc.Cell: 202-468-7899On Apr 29, 2020, at 9:30 AM, michael mcdonald <michael.d.mcdonald@me.com> wrote:Dear East End colleagues,As you probably know, it was projected by recent epidemiological models that our cases and deaths would be dropping by now. That has not happened yet. In recent days, confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 are still growing, but are slowing down and are potentially plateauing in many East End neighborhoods, while other neighborhoods are seeing new outbreaks.We are now entering a period of time when the weather is getting better. The streets are getting busier. Beaches, businesses, and other areas are becoming more active and social distancing may become more difficult.This may mean the rate of COVID-19 infections (which are far greater than the confirmed cases) may go up in the days and weeks ahead as national and state leaders open and in some cases force back-to-work trends. Increases in COVID-19 disease and deaths do not have to happen in our region if we collectively take actions to maintain behavioral and social resilience to the SARS-CoV-virus. However, if the spring and summer of 2020 mirror the kind of crowding in public spaces and businesses that we have seen in past years on the East End, it is likely that we will see a second wave of disease and deaths in our communities. This could create conditions for a longer sustained economic contraction and increased restrictions on our personal and economic activities in our own communities and region, if not managed properly.If you would like to join our conversation tomorrow, Thursday April 30, about how we should keep our households, communities, and Peconic bioregion safer during this phase and stage of the pandemic, please use the following access information for our call later in the afternoon:Topic: COVID-19 Resilient East End Zoom CallTime: Apr 30, 2020 04:00 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada)Join Zoom MeetingMeeting ID: 857 5019 1970Password: 094337One tap mobile+19292056099,,85750191970#,,1#,094337# US (New York)+13017158592,,85750191970#,,1#,094337# US (Germantown)Dial by your location+1 929 205 6099 US (New York)+1 301 715 8592 US (Germantown)+1 312 626 6799 US (Chicago)+1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose)+1 253 215 8782 US (Tacoma)+1 346 248 7799 US (Houston)Meeting ID: 857 5019 1970Password: 094337Find your local number: https://us02web.zoom.us/u/kclSh2u9m6We look forward to speaking with you at 4:00 pm tomorrow.MikeMichael D. McDonald, Dr.P.H.CoordinatorGlobal Health Response and Resilience InitiativeAlliance for Global Resilience and RegenerationExecutive DirectorHealth Initiatives Foundation, Inc.ChairmanOviar Global Resilience Systems, Inc.Cell: 202-468-7899
On Apr 23, 2020, at 12:28 PM, michael mcdonald <michael.d.mcdonald@me.com> wrote:Dear colleagues,In today’s 4:30 PM COVID-19 Resilient East End Zoom meeting, we will be looking at two key issues on the East End during this phase and stage of the pandemic:1) How do we reduce COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths, while restarting employment, business, and the economy?; and2) How do we restart the economy on the East End to make our communities more resilient and regenerative, starting with enhancing the mission critical functions of our communities for our new 21st century realities on the East End?The article below may be useful to measure how well our town, county, state, and federal government are doing in opening up our society, while preserving health and life of those amongst us that are at high risk if contracting COVID-19.<WebPage.pdf>
MikeMichael D. McDonald, Dr.P.H.CoordinatorGlobal Health Response and Resilience InitiativeAlliance for Global Resilience and RegenerationExecutive DirectorHealth Initiatives Foundation, Inc.ChairmanOviar Global Resilience Systems, Inc.Cell: 202-468-7899
On Apr 21, 2020, at 4:54 PM, michael mcdonald <michael.d.mcdonald@me.com> wrote:Dear colleagues,We are at another turning point in the COVID-19 pandemic. Food supply chains and the global, U.S., and New York economies are beginning to collapse in addition to the continuing (but potentially decreasing rate of spread of) COVID-19 disease and deaths.We will be discussing these issues in relation to the resilience and regeneration of the East End bioregion and its communities at 4:30 PM on Thursday, April 23.Topic: COVID-19 Resilient East End Zoom Call
Time: Apr 23, 2020 04:30 PM Eastern Time (US and Canada)Meeting ID: 830 6606 1827Password: 039017One tap mobile+19292056099,,83066061827#,,#,039017# US (New York)+13126266799,,83066061827#,,#,039017# US (Chicago)Dial by your location+1 929 205 6099 US (New York)+1 312 626 6799 US (Chicago)+1 301 715 8592 US+1 346 248 7799 US (Houston)+1 669 900 6833 US (San Jose)+1 253 215 8782 USMeeting ID: 830 6606 1827 Password: 039017 Find your local number: https://us02web.zoom.us/u/klSYAx3sbBackgroundAs you know, many of our New York State hospitals have been overwhelmed by COVID-19, but our County’s health care facilities have reported that they have managed the pandemic crisis relatively well so far, despite shortages of some materiel such as PPE. They still may become overwhelmed depending on how well we manage the balance between self-sequestering of high risk individuals and enabling low risk individuals with effectively networked higher risk individuals to restart the economy. The consequences of our country’s late start in planning for and suppressing the pandemic curve during the Trump Administration is that we are now the leading country in the world in COVID-19 infections and deaths and restarting our economy and protecting our social infrastructures will be far more difficult without undesirable outcomes.Contrary to President Trump’s messaging, the pandemic threat has not dropped significantly in many American communities in comparison with countries like New Zealand, South Korea, Costa Rica, and Taiwan, who have effectively engaged proactive pandemic management. In addition, in some societies like Japan and Singapore that are opening up their societies again, they are experiencing a rapid second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is no question that our economy and social infrastructures are starting to collapse and intelligent actions must be taken to restart our economy in a manner that does not sacrifice the vulnerable amongst us.Petroleum prices are now below $0 for a barrel of oil for the first time in history. The stock market is heading down despite the President’s encouraging words of better days ahead. Unemployment trends are approaching the levels of the Great Depression. Businesses are failing. The government stimulus is turning out to be significantly inadequate for small businesses to survive, while much of the funds announced for small businesses have actually gone to large corporations.As a result of the catastrophic impacts of the pandemic on our economy, President Trump’s efforts to rapidly restart the American economy is likely to accelerate a second wave of the pandemic in American communities followed by additional lockdowns. This can be seen in the model below as the red curve of President Trump’s intended rapid societal restart overwhelms our local health system with new COVID-19 cases. This is in contrast to Governor Cuomo’s intended continuation of extended home stays and slow intelligent restart of widening social and business activities in the projection of far less individuals requiring hospitalizations from COVID-19 along the blue curve below in Suffolk county.<PastedGraphic-24.png>The bottomline is that it is still critically important that we keep COVID-19 out of our households, neighborhoods, and communities. It matters how we interact with potential super-transmission sites, such as health clinics, hospitals, grocery stores and pharmacies, as well as how they decontaminate highly trafficked sites and manage social distancing and universal mask requirements. Before businesses reopen, they need to have clear plans on how they are going to keep their employees, customers, and suppliers safe.To preserve our economic and social infrastructure, we will have to restart the productivity of our society, while ensuring the successful self sequestering of our most vulnerable populations that can stay productively engaged through advanced computing and communication networks. However, we also need to think deeply about whether we want to continue to support the petroleum and petrochemical political economy that is obviously beyond the point of diminishing returns and collapsing. Alternatively, is it time to rapidly transition toward a healthier, more secure, resilient and regenerative Blue Green circular political economy on the East End of Long Island? Can we now ensure that our communities will not only survive but thrive during and after the COVID-19 pandemic and throughout the challenging years and decades ahead during the 21st century by moving forward rather than falling back into old patterns that are beyond the point of diminishing returns?We appear to be at the cusp of a Great Transformation if we choose to move forward to a Blue Green circular economy. Thank you for being an important part of helping the East End prepare for this time of potentially turbulent transitions. It is abundantly clear to increasing numbers of us that The Great Transformation will at best be guided by decision-makers that understand and support science and evidence-based reporting of the factors that will enable successful resilience and regeneration in our East End communities and bioregion.It will be the enlightened collective actions of the people of our democracy in relationship with our sitting governments at all levels of our political and economic systems that will determine our health, productivity, well-being, and sustainability. We, in our communities, bioregion, and American society will determine the outcomes of this pandemic period and what comes next household by household, neighborhood by neighborhood, business by business, community by community. This will include our intelligent engagement with distributed collectively intelligent networks, learning systems, community action teams, productive ethical companies, faith-based groups, as well as engagement in governance in high severity crises such as in our COVID-19 pandemic and climate change. Ultimately, in a democracy during a high severity crisis and in a time of great change such as we are currently experiencing, it will matter more how the public, in its various forms of complex adaptive systems and governance, engages its leaders in effective government than how its government leaders engage its people.We hope you will join with us at 4:30 PM on Thursday, April 23.Please note that we have added the COVID-10 screening tool within the East End South Fork and North Fork dashboards below. It may be useful if you feel you or someone you know has COVID-19.MikeMichael D. McDonald, Dr.P.H.CoordinatorGlobal Health Response and Resilience InitiativeAlliance for Global Resilience and RegenerationExecutive DirectorHealth Initiatives Foundation, Inc.ChairmanOviar Global Resilience Systems, Inc.Cell: 202-468-7899
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